Nuclear posturing — a bend on the road

The world we live in is no more a stretch of horizons under cosmic energy. Three forces, globalization, technology and climate change are reshaping everything around us. As per Thomas L. Friedman, interestingly all these forces are accelerating at the same time. God knows that will there be, rip opening the globe, sewing it to its seam or mothballing it all together. These are interesting times, therefore developments in international and regional arena are not so strange a happening. World was expecting something out of the box, or without a box, since the time the forces of globalization, technology and climate change are accelerating simultaneously. USA is rewriting its Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), a tangent shift from 2010 NPR which was a statement of nuclear restrain if not an all-out reduction. The upcoming US NPR is probably a manifestation of a cliché, “keep your friends close, but your enemies closer.” Newly drafted US nuclear strategy has already been sent to President Trump. This will allow the first use of nuclear weapon for narrow and limited circumstances but will also cater for non-nuclear strategic attacks, like, attack on U.S territory, allies, partners, civilian population, infra-structure, allied nuclear forces and their command and control, National grid and internet through cyber-attacks. This draft is vouching for low yield nuclear weapons, the diet nukes. Policy advisers think that the current US nuclear weapons are too big and too deadly to be used, therefore they are always self-deterred. The world knows this, so to give a message that US can actually use nuclear force they are going for low yield tactical nukes. Anything less than 20KT is a low yield weapon, will the low yield weapon lower the threshold, the NPR of 2010 already removed one tactical weapon from the US arsenal. The new draft is a reversal under new realities. As per the estimates the strategic situation is bleak due to the overtures of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. Nuclear strategy is based on strange callings, you strategies between a vector of policy, strategy and tactics. Bernard Brodie once defined nuclear politics, but then the weapon was too crude. Henry Kissinger in his book “Nuclear weapon and foreign policy” tried to elaborate the debate of this nuclear conundrum. During 2nd world war first nuclear age was all about nuclear politics. The cold war and the second nuclear age was about the nuclear strategy, Third nuclear age, which is post-cold war, is again based on nuclear politics. So it is not Mr Trump who is up for a reversal, the reversals are a global phenomenon, it is in the air. It seems few nations are eager to initiate wars and they do not want the nuclear weapons to stymie their desire or deter them, again a reversal from what the world desires, at least superficially. USA is the first nuclear power of the world and leads the pecking order from all sides. If USA is redefining its nuclear posture, Pakistan also has to take some cognizance. India is already on a trajectory of change may we call it the reversal curve (in terms of bellicosity only). Indian army chief’s outburst about Pakistan’s nuclear bluff, and, that they can cross the border, speaks of Indian nuclear review and is not a statement in Isolation. Indians are planning a war with Pakistan under nuclear overshadow. The south block and Raisina hill at Dehli made Indian army chief to deliver this deliberate vitriol. In the backdrop of changing nuclear postures around Pakistan, the stock of realities is quaint essential. Pakistan’s nuclear strategy was based on an element of ambiguity initially but now the contours are clearing up as a deliberate choice. The second Shred is the nuclear first use, if the territorial integrity of Pakistan is challenged through any means. Third is the moratorium of nuclear test unless India asks Pakistan to remove the lid. The governing principle of nuclear strategy is the full spectrum deterrence. Which is actually a realized change from credible minimum deterrence. What US is now thinking to achieve through low yield or tactical weapons, Pakistan did, years ago and is maintaining that posture. Pakistan has rather moved to the concept of comprehensive deterrence. This it has achieved with weapon systems like Shaheen III with a range of 2750 KM at one end of spectrum and the Nasr with the range of 60 KM at the other end. Shaheen III can hit the India nuclear bases at Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Thereby countering the Indian second strike capability. Pakistan nuclear arsenal is kept under safest possible regime of being de-mated and un-deployed. The second strike capability is sea based and there is a visible shift from massive retaliation to a graduated or flexible response. Babur, a land based cruise missile with a range of 700 / 750 Kilometers and RAAD Air based cruise missile with a range of 350 KM are developed to cater for the Ballistic Missile Defense of India. BMD is a false sense of security for India which might lead her to adventurism. First use option at territorial mutilation will be applied under a very high degree of operational efficiency, good and reliable intelligence and effective and predominant electronic warfare means. Conventional asymmetries are misnomer, if the context and quantum is not deliberated upon. Pakistan’s military capability have enhanced manifold that is the reason that strategic options are plugged into the operational realities on ground. Pakistan takes deterrence as a dynamic concept not static. It is based on both the counter value and counter force targets. From Nicobar Island to the battle groups up close, the spectrum is well spread out in the most comprehensive sense. General Rawat, the India Army Chief before testing Pakistan’s nuclear bluff should take a lesson or two in nuclear strategic or may be the nuclear politics, because escalation control and the war termination are the two concepts which become causality at the first press of the nuclear button. He seems to be acting in a comedy of manners like all the boastful soldiers with barreled chests and Barry tones. USA’s new NPR document will create ripples and force all the nuclear powers to redefine their nuclear strategy. This will create a space for any Dr Strangelove to ride a nuclear missile and roll down as a hero of any upcoming black comedy. The American film institute will then probably add another name into their list of 100 laughs of 100 years. Pakistan’s diplomatic alignment with USA is therefore a sin-quo-non in today’s era of reversals. Indian soft power factories are manufacturing, Prisms, designed to give an angle to everything being Pakistani. Pakistan instead of questioning the product, should change the angle, this will happen once we engage more with our friends, we communicate, talk, debate and discuss. USA is a friend, only the Indian prism effect is making her squinting the eyes, let us have a sunshine roll from the hills lifting the vales. The writer is a freelance journalist, who contributes regularly to security related issues and can be reached at sindhulatif@gmail.com. Published in Daily Times, January 21st 2018.